'Catastrophic' rise in temperature possible says the Met Office

Here is what Dr Vicky Pope (who is the Head of Climate Change Advice at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre) had to say recently about the possible dangerous impacts of a 'catastrophic' rise in temperature due to climate change.

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She suggests that it is much better to act now, otherwise the "risks will multiply" and at temperature rise of 5°C would be possible under the worst-case senario (rather than a rise of less than 3 °C under the worst-case senario if rapid and early decline in emissions are achieved). Given we are trying to keep the increased at less than 2°C - 'we' (individuals, businesses and governments) really do need to act now if we are going to avoid the worst of climate change!!

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"The risks for worst-case outcomes amplify much more quickly than the risks for most likely outcomes. For an early and rapid decline in emissions, the worst-case outcome is around 0.7 °C higher than the most likely temperature rise. With much slower action taken much later, the difference between the most likely and worst-case outcome is almost twice as wide, at 1.2 °C. This takes a worst-case temperature rise of less than 3 °C to one just above 5 °C by the end of this century, bringing with it significant risk of dangerous impacts to our environment, society and economy.This would be catastrophic for the environment and for humanity."

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"A major reason for this amplification is the so-called 'carbon cycle effect'. Plants, soils and oceans currently absorb about half of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activities, limiting rises in atmospheric CO2 and slowing global warming. As temperatures increase, this absorption is very likely to decrease. For example, plant matter in the soil breaks down more quickly at higher temperatures, releasing carbon more quickly, and amplifying the warming trend. Methane released from the thawing of permafrost will add to the warming. This methane release is currently not included in the calculations, and becomes more of a risk for larger temperature rises."

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"Hence, the risks of dangerous climate change will not increase slowly as greenhouse gases increase. Rather, the risks will multiply if we do not reduce emissions fast enough."

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For a good explaination of the science of climate change by Dr Pope click here

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Other topics include:

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