Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Two climate futures - new study published in the journal Nature

Here is some of the press release for a new study called "Greenhouse gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2°C" that was published today in Nature.

.On the way to phasing out emissions: More than 50% reductions needed by 2050 to respect 2°C climate target

Cover of the current edition of 'Nature'. Credits: 'Nature'

Less than a quarter of the proven fossil fuel reserves can be burnt and emitted between now and 2050, if global warming is to be limited to two degrees Celsius (2°C).

The study has, for the first time, calculated how much greenhouse gas emissions we can pump into the atmosphere between now and 2050, to have a reasonable chance of keeping warming lower than 2°C (above pre-industrial levels) – a goal supported by more than 100 countries (2). We can only emit 1000 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) between the years 2000 and 2050. The world has already emitted one third of that in just nine years.

“If we continue burning fossil fuels as we do, we will have exhausted the carbon budget in merely 20 years, and global warming will go well beyond two degrees,” says Malte Meinshausen, lead author of the study and climate researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The three-year research project involved scientists from Germany, the United Kingdom and Switzerland (3).

The study concluded that greenhouse gas emissions must be cut by more than 50 percent by 2050 relative to 1990 levels, if the risk of exceeding 2°C is to be limited to 25 percent.

“Only a fast switch away from fossil fuels will give us a reasonable chance to avoid considerable warming. We shouldn’t forget that a 2°C global mean warming would take us far beyond the natural temperature variations that life on Earth has experienced since we humans have been around,” says Malte Meinshausen.

The study also compared the volume of CO2 emissions that could result from the burning of known economically recoverable fossil fuel reserves—oil, gas and coal—and found that these reserves are four times larger than the emission budget between now and 2050 (4). “To keep warming below 2°C, we cannot burn and emit the CO2 from more than a quarter of the economically recoverable fossil fuels up to 2050, and in the end only a small fraction of all known fossil fuel reserves,” concludes Bill Hare, co-author of the study.


Two possible futures: One in which no climate policies are implemented (red), and one with strong action to mitigate emissions (blue). Shown are fossil CO2 emissions (top panel) and corresponding global warming (bottom panel). The shown mitigation pathway limits fossil and land-use related CO2 emissions to 1000 billion tonnes CO2 over the first half of the 21st century with near-zero net emissions thereafter. Greenhouse gas emissions of this pathway in year 2050 are ~70% below 1990 levels. Without climate policies, global warming will cross 2°C by the middle of the century. Strong mitigation actions according to the blue route would limit the risk of exceeding 2°C to 25%. For more details, see Figure 2 in Meinshausen et al. (2009).

Credit: M. Meinshausen et al. (2009)


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COMMENTS ALWAYS WELCOME !!
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So please, tell us what you think.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

300th Post - Happy Earth Day !!


My 300th post has come just in time for Earth Day 2009.

It is celebrated in the United States on April 22nd.

It was founded by U.S. Senator Gaylord Nelson in 1970.

The United Nations celebrates an Earth Day each year on the March equinox (thanks Wiki).

More here

Saturday, April 18, 2009

US EPA deems CO2 a health risk

Here is the news release from the US EPA website:

EPA Finds Greenhouse Gases Pose Threat to Public Health, Welfare / Proposed Finding Comes in Response to 2007 Supreme Court Ruling


“In both magnitude and probability, climate change is an enormous problem. The greenhouse gases that are responsible for it endanger public health and welfare within the meaning of the Clean Air Act.”


More information here


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Ecosystem Change and Human Well-being
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Climate Literacy
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Splitting: 'jobs' versus 'the environment'
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Towards a Global Green Recovery
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COMMENTS ALWAYS WELCOME !!
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So please, tell us what you think.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Adaption of People and Forests to Climate Change


Here is a new report called "Adaption of People and Forests to Climate Change" which will be published officially at the next session of the United Nations Forum on Forests (UNFF). Here is the blurb that came through the climate-l listserve:

"The report is the first product of the Global Forest Expert Panels of the Collaborative Partnership on Forests (CPF) and presents the state-of-knowledge about the impacts of climate change on forests and people and options for adaptation."

"One of the key messages that emerged from this assessment is that the carbon-regulating services of forests are at risk of being lost entirely unless current carbon emissions are reduced substantially; this would result in the release of huge quantities of carbon to the atmosphere, exacerbating climate change."

Just to point it out again - "the carbon-regulating services of forests are at risk of being lost entirely unless current carbon emissions are reduced substantially". That really doesn't sound good.

Finally, here is some info on the IUFRO and the CPF.

"The International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO) is the only world-wide organization devoted to forest research and related sciences. Its members are research institutions, universities, and individual scientists as well as decision-making authorities and other stakeholders with a focus on forests and trees."

For further information, please visit: http://www.iufro.org/

"The Collaborative Partnership on Forests (CPF) is a voluntary arrangement among 14 international organizations and secretariats with substantial programmes on forests. Its mission is to promote the management, conservation and sustainable development of all types of forest and strengthen long-term political commitment to this end."

For further information, please visit: http://www.fao.org/forestry/cpf/en/

** If you enjoyed this post please also check out:
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Ecosystem Change and Human Well-being
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COMMENTS ALWAYS WELCOME !!
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So please, tell us what you think.
the

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Climate Literacy


Here is a new (17 page) report called "Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science". It was put out by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and is therefore well worth a read! Below is the description that came through on the climate-l listserve.

A guide is now available to help individuals of all ages understand how climate influences them -- and how they influence climate. A product of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, it was compiled by an interagency group led by NOAA.

"The Essential Principles of Climate Science" presents important information for individuals and communities to understand Earth's climate, impacts of climate change, and approaches for adapting and mitigating change. Principles in the guide can serve as discussion starters or launching points for scientific inquiry. The guide can also serve educators who teach climate science as part of their science curricula.

“As climate policy is being discussed, it is very important for the citizens of our nation to have an appreciation for some of the fundamental aspects of climate and climate change,” said Tom Karl, director of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., and lead for NOAA's climate services. “This guide is a first step for people who want to know more about the essential principles of our climate system, how to better discern scientifically credible information about climate, and how to identify problems related to understanding climate and climate change.”

“There is so much misinformation about climate. We want to provide an easily readable document to help everyone make the most informed decisions,” said Karl.

“Having one product endorsed by the nation’s top federal science agencies, as well as leading science centers and associations, makes this document an essential resource.”

The 17-page guide includes information on how people can help reduce climate change and its impacts. It also defines important terms and concepts used when talking about climate and approaches to adaptation and mitigation.


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Boost the economy and tackle poverty at the same time
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COMMENTS ALWAYS WELCOME !!
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So please, tell us what you think.

Friday, April 03, 2009

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Forest Conservation, REDD and SFM


Here is some information on forest conservation from the The Global Environment Facility’s (GEF) Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel (STAP). The aim of the workshop is to "develop the Panel’s scientific and technical guidance for the fifth GEF Replenishment (GEF-5) strategic programming on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), forest conservation and sustainable forest management (SFM)".
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The main reason for this post is that a good friend of mine helped organise the event.

Anyway, here is the blurb for the workshop:

GEF STAP workshop on REDD, Forest Conservation and Sustainable Forest Management: Options for GEF-5 (LULUCF, SFM to REDD)
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Tuesday 31 March 2009, 9:00am to 5:15pm. Room U3-435, World Bank U building, 1800 G Street, Washington, DC

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Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) dominated by tropical deforestation contribute to nearly 25% of CO2 equivalent global emissions (IPCC, 2007). The IPCC concluded that reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) are critical to addressing climate change through stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere.

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The Stern Review also reinforced this finding and concluded that curbing deforestation is a highly cost-effective way of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and has the potential to offer significant reductions fairly quickly.

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In 2007, the World Bank started the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) to support the development of REDD. The United Nations Collaborative Programme on REDD in Developing Countries (UN-REDD) was launched in 2008 as a collaboration between FAO, UNDP and UNEP. The UNFCCC is in the middle of negotiations on the methods and guidelines for implementing positive incentives to address REDD. The GEF, being the operating entity of the financial mechanism of the UNFCCC, is likely to be involved in operationalising the emerging REDD framework.

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More information here


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Towards a Global Green Recovery.
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COMMENTS ALWAYS WELCOME !!

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So please, tell us what you think.