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The chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Rajendra Pachauri, said a more ambitious agreement to cut greenhouse emissions than Australian Government adviser Ross Garnaut believes is possible was still on the table.
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Dr Pachauri supported the views of scientists who believe stabilising atmospheric carbon dioxide at 450 parts per million - a level that Professor Garnaut says is beyond reach in the short-term - was not enough.
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They believe the target should be 350 parts per million, to avoid, among other catastrophes, sea level rises of more than a metre.
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"If you talk to the president of Maldives and indeed the People of the Maldive islands, they are living in a state of fear," he said yesterday.
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"If you look at parts of Africa, by 2020 there will be 75 million to 250 million people living under water stress on account of climate change.
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"Attention on some of these issues will increase, it will escalate, it will snowball, and as a result people are going to say 'Look, 450 parts per million itself is a bit too high'."
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The IPCC last year predicted stabilisation at 450 parts per milllion would lead to a temperature rise of between 2 and 2.4 degrees. Two degrees is the tipping point where catastrophic climate change becomes potentially unavoidable, with ice sheets melting and releasing stockpiles of greenhouse gas.
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Professor Garnaut believes the best achievable target in the short term is 550 parts per million and recommends Australia agree to play a proportionate part in a deal at this level.
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He says this would create a framework that could cut carbon dioxide further, as required.
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Speaking at a conference on the future of cities, Dr Pachauri said stabilisation was likely to lead to sea level rises of 0.4 to 1.4 metres. "Now, add to that the melting of ice bodies (and) you're talking about well over a metre of sea level rise. That, to my mind, will be disastrous for hundreds of millions of people," he said.
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On the eve of the American Presidential election, the Mission Climat of Caisse des Depots in Paris id delighted to present its most recent Climate Report:
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“Change is in the Air: The Foundations of the Coming American Carbon Market”.
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Contents
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Introduction
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The American emissions landscape
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20 Years of US climate policy
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Private players mobilize
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Cities, states and regions set their own emissions targets
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The US Supreme Court gets involved
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Congress takes up the climate change policy debate
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Presidential policy
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What does the future hold?
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This report details the climate policy initiatives launched by private actors, cities and states, discusses the legislative proposals being considered by the United States Congress, and explores how American efforts may impact the international carbon market.
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I found this paper on China and its emissions and thought it my be of interest to some.
Is it Fair to Treat China as a Christmas Tree to Hang Everybody's Complaints? Putting its Own Energy Saving into Perspective
by Zhong Xiang ZhangEast-West Center - Research Program
Abstract:
China has been the world's second largest carbon emitter for years. Recent studies show that China had overtaken the U.S. as the world's largest emitter in 2007. This has put China on the spotlight, just at a time when the world community starts negotiating a post-Kyoto climate regime under the Bali Roadmap. China seems to become such a Christmas tree on which everybody can hang his/her complaints.
This paper will first discuss whether such a critics is fair by examining China's own efforts towards energy saving, the widespread use of renewable energy and participation in clean development mechanism. Next, the paper puts carbon reductions of China's unilateral actions into perspective by examining whether the estimated greenhouse gas emission reduction from meeting the country's national energy saving goal is achieved from China's unilateral actions or mainly with support from the clean development mechanism projects. Then the paper discusses how far developing country commitments can go in an immediate post-2012 climate regime, thus pointing out the direction and focus of future international climate negotiations. Finally, emphasizing that China needs to act as a large and responsible developing country and take due responsibilities and to set a good example to the majority of developing countries, the paper articulates what can be expected from China to illustrate that China can be a good partner in combating global climate change.
This paper can be downloaded at the URL:
http://ssrn.com/abstract=1285618
Also see:
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China's Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change
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China, US sign 10-year energy, environment framework
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Treasurer Wayne Swan says Treasury modelling proves that acting now to reduce carbon emissions will be cheaper than taking no action.
Speaking in Brisbane today, Mr Swan said the newly-released Treasury modelling suggested that costs for countries who act now to reduce emissions will be 15 per cent less over the next 40 years compared to those countries who wait.
"The message is clear - acting early is an economic imperative," he said.
"The modelling proves that the longer we delay, the more expensive responding to climate change will become.
"Acting early is particularly important if countries implement emissions reduction schemes in stages - which at this stage is a likely outcome," he said.
Mr Swan says the figures show that a well-designed emissions trading scheme will allow Australia to reduce the carbon it uses in production by 75 per cent by 2050, without affecting growth.
"That means we will be able to produce more for every tonne of emissions we generate as a nation," he said.
Some parts of industry have voiced concerns that an emissions trading scheme will force them offshore and reduce profits, but Mr Swan says the scheme will promote growth and be affordable to families.
"By using a well-designed, market-based solution, we win on the environment, we win on competitive industry, we win on growth," he said.
Mr Swan and Climate Change Minister Penny Wong will release the full details of the economic impact of an emissions trading scheme later today.
The Opposition has been calling for a delay in the introduction of an emissions trading scheme until at least 2011 in the wake of the global financial crisis.
But Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says the Government's ambition remains for a 2010 start-up date.
ABC online
Federal Environment Minister Peter Garrett has blamed the previous government for the nation's poor global rating in environmental exploitation.
A study on the health of the planet has found humans are using the world's natural resources faster than ever - and Australians are among the top offenders.
Conservation group WWF ranked Australia as the country with the fifth largest ecological footprint per capita, with eight hectares of land reportedly needed to maintain the lifestyle of each Australian - four times the sustainable amount.
The report points to Australia's carbon emissions, cropping and grazing practices as being the largest contributors to the poor rating.
Mr Garrett says the ranking comes as no surprise because the previous government failed to act on environmental issues for years.
"It's something which we've known about, it's been there in our state of the environment reports in the past," he said.
"This government is strongly committed to doing something about the state of our environment, but I really think that Howard government ministers now in opposition should hang their heads in shame when we get a rating like this, because what it says is we haven't had effective national leadership."
Here are some good quotes from Peter Israel (General Manager of Origin Energy) about what he felt would be the real cost of an emissions trading scheme in Australia.
“I looked at what the economic modelling is telling us as to what an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) will do to Australian business and there is a lot of hot air about the issue,” said Peter Israel.
“For example, the Garnaut Report and the Climate Roundtable work indicate the economy will grow only slightly less quickly when you have an ETS - it is 0.1% per year reduction in GDP" he said.
“People think it's doom and gloom and we will all be broke, but already hundreds of organisations are focusing on some element of the carbon economy …" he said.
Source:
24 October 2008: Mayors and senior officials from 36 of the world’s largest cities gathered from 22-24 October 2008, in Tokyo, Japan, for talks on how to fight global warming in the latest meeting of the so-called C40 climate initiative. (Note: both Sydney and Melbourne are member cities of C40)
The C40 Large Cities Climate Leadership Group, established in 2005 by London’s then mayor Ken Livingstone, includes leaders from the 40 largest cities in the world dedicated to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It is estimated that cities worldwide are responsible for 75% of all carbon dioxide emissions.
Participants then engaged in five sessions on:
More information at: C40 Tokyo Summit,22-24 Oct 2008
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The next Summit is scheduled to take place in Seoul, Korea, from 18-21 May 2009, around the theme “Cities’ Achievements and Challenges in the Fight against Climate Change.”
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More information at: C40 Seoul Summit, 18-21 May 2009
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Some suggestions on how cities can help fight climate change:
Also check out:
by Charisse Ede (AAP)
October 23, 2008
The mass use of electric cars moved a giant step closer to reality today, with power company AGL and finance group Macquarie Capital signing an agreement with international group Better Place to provide infrastructure to support the environmentally-friendly vehicles.
Under the agreement, Macquarie will raise $1 billion to build an electric-vehicle network in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane, and AGL will power it with renewable energy.
Better Place, established by American entrepreneur Shai Agassi, has designed the infrastructure model, which is already being rolled out in Israel and Denmark.
Mr Agassi said under the agreement, by 2012 the three major Australian cities will each have a network of between 200,000 and 250,000 charge stations where drivers can recharge their electric cars.
These are likely to be at home, in businesses, car parks and shopping centres, he said.
In addition, there will be some 150 switch stations in each city and on major freeways, where electric batteries can be automatically replaced in drive-in stations similar to a car wash.
Amid warnings that climate change could lead to more cases of heat-related illness, mosquito-borne viruses, food poisoning and depression around the world, Victoria's Department of Human Services has confirmed it has commissioned its own investigation into the extent to which Victorians might be affected.
In a move described as both "heartening" and "long overdue" by prominent health experts, work on the project is due to begin in January under the working title "climate change impacts on population health and vulnerabilities".
The study has been asked to identify the Victorian health system's major "vulnerabilities" to climate change, as well as the adaptive capacity of Victorians and their Government.
It has also been charged with establishing how certain the relationship is between climate change and health issues.
The Age believes that DHS has already started pilot programs into the development of "heatwave emergency systems".
DHS held a conference on the issue last October. Spokesman Bram Alexander said the large number of heat-related deaths in Europe over recent years had drawn attention to the role of climate change in health policy.
"Severe heatwaves in Europe have caused deaths in recent years, and we are keen to be well prepared for the impacts that climate change may have upon public health and the challenges it may bring," he said.
"Climate change could have varying impacts on public health in different parts of Victoria. Regions like Mildura may need a different approach to that in South Gippsland."
The investigation was likely to run for several years, Mr Alexander said. It would formulate strategies for five, 10 and 15-year increments.
The move follows calls from a wide range of groups, including the Australian Medical Association, the Climate Institute and the Australian Conservation Foundation, for governments to better address the issue.
This year the World Health Organisation declared the theme of this year's World Health Day to be "protecting health from climate change".
Experts have warned that climate change may bring a new range of "green" crimes, from rorts of environmental labelling to fraud on the multibillion-dollar emission trading scheme and theft of water and other scarce materials and even increased domestic violence.
The warning is contained in a report from the the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on the impact of climate change on Australia's eight police forces and 45,000 officers.
Authors Anthony Bergin and Ross Allen said that in a booming emissions-trading market, there would always be a high possibility of fraud by a "green shoe brigade".
The authors said weather extremes could encourage criminal behaviour, including increased domestic violence and a rise in other anti-social behaviour that could increase after disasters.
Last year Australian Federal Police Commissioner Mick Keelty said climate change could eclipse terrorism as the security issue of the century.
Source:
Update:
I found this:
Climate Change and Health: An exploration of challenges for public health in Victoria
See also:
Health effects of climate change in the UK - 2001/2002 report
The UK government's official climate change advisers have raised the bar on ambitions to cut emissions.
The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) said a cut in greenhouse gas emissions of at least 80% by 2050 should include international aviation and shipping.
It said other industries would have to make up any shortfall in those areas.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown has intimated at an 80% cut, but ministers have been wary of counting aviation and shipping, where cuts are difficult.
Mr Brown hinted at the Labour Party conference that the UK would need to cut emissions to just one fifth of the current amount - a task of staggering ambition.
"in just 100 months' time, if we are lucky, and based on a quite conservative estimate, we could reach a tipping point for the beginnings of runaway climate change."
"Because of such self-reinforcing positive feedbacks (which, because of the accidental humour of science, we must remind ourselves are, in fact, negative), once a critical greenhouse concentration threshold is passed, global warming will continue even if we stop releasing additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. If that happens, the Earth's climate will shift into another, more volatile state, with different ocean circulation, wind and rainfall patterns. The implications of which, according to a growing litany of research, are potentially catastrophic for life on Earth. Such a change in the state of the climate system is often referred to as irreversible climate change."
"In arriving at our timescale, we also used the lower end of threats in assessing the impact of vanishing ice cover and other carbon-cycle feedbacks (those wanting more can download a note on method from onehundredmonths.org). But the result is worrying enough."
The Green New Deal can be downloaded at neweconomics.org
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/aug/01/climatechange.carbonemissions
Pic: The American Pika was placed on the IUCN Red List.Recent studies suggest that Pika species populations are declining due to various factors, most notably global warming. A 2003 study, published in the Journal of Mammology, showed that 9 out of 25 sampled populations of American Pika had disappeared, causing biologists to conclude that the species is reaching extinction. As they live in the high and cooler mountain regions, they are very sensitive to high temperatures, and are considered to be one of the best early warning systems for detecting global warming in the western United States.
Climate change threatens to kill off up to a third of the planet's species by the end of the century if urgent action isn't taken to restore fragile ecosystems, protect endangered animals and manage growth, scientists warned Wednesday as a wildlife summit opened.
Experts noted that many plants and animals have temperature-specific habitats. A change of only a few degrees can kill them or send them seeking a better home.
"Species are moving to track what is the most ideal climate for them," Brennan said, adding that many are "desperately trying" to find their way through a maze of dams, development and other manmade obstacles along their natural corridors.
Brennan and others said creating wildlife pathways so animals can move freely northward as temperatures warm could mean the difference between survival and extinction.
"We have to have the ability for species to move and when they get there, wherever there is, it needs to be an intact and healthy ecosystem," Brennan said.
As the Earth's temperature rises, entire habitats will change, consumed by weather extremes, fires, pest outbreaks and invasions of nonnative species, said Virginia Burkett, a chief scientist at the U.S. Geological Survey.
Burkett cited the decline of the American pika, a small mountain-dwelling mammal also known as a rock-rabbit that is typically found in the western U.S. and Canada. The rodent maintains a body temperature topping 100 degrees, but with just a few degrees of climate change, "this animal will die," Burkett said.
She said officials need to begin reducing the non-climate change related stressors, "stop draining the wetlands, damming rivers."
Nature, she said, is highly adaptable and can be its own best protector against the effects of climate change if it can function, well, naturally.
Coastal growth also must be controlled and limited to allow for "wetlands to migrate inland naturally as sea level rise accelerates, and they can't do that if there's a road or a condominium there," Burkett added.
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