Dr Pachauri says 450ppm too high (we need 350ppm)

Here is a story abour Dr Pachauri suggesting we need a target of 350ppm rather than 450ppm.

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Expert raises climate hopes

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Adam Morton
The Age
October 24, 2008
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THE head of the UN's Nobel Prize-winning scientific body has argued for optimism on fragile climate negotiations, believing the snowballing impact of global warming may persuade world leaders to strike an ambitious deal.

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The chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Rajendra Pachauri, said a more ambitious agreement to cut greenhouse emissions than Australian Government adviser Ross Garnaut believes is possible was still on the table.

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Dr Pachauri supported the views of scientists who believe stabilising atmospheric carbon dioxide at 450 parts per million - a level that Professor Garnaut says is beyond reach in the short-term - was not enough.

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They believe the target should be 350 parts per million, to avoid, among other catastrophes, sea level rises of more than a metre.

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"If you talk to the president of Maldives and indeed the People of the Maldive islands, they are living in a state of fear," he said yesterday.

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"If you look at parts of Africa, by 2020 there will be 75 million to 250 million people living under water stress on account of climate change.

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"Attention on some of these issues will increase, it will escalate, it will snowball, and as a result people are going to say 'Look, 450 parts per million itself is a bit too high'."

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The IPCC last year predicted stabilisation at 450 parts per milllion would lead to a temperature rise of between 2 and 2.4 degrees. Two degrees is the tipping point where catastrophic climate change becomes potentially unavoidable, with ice sheets melting and releasing stockpiles of greenhouse gas.

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Professor Garnaut believes the best achievable target in the short term is 550 parts per million and recommends Australia agree to play a proportionate part in a deal at this level.

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He says this would create a framework that could cut carbon dioxide further, as required.

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Speaking at a conference on the future of cities, Dr Pachauri said stabilisation was likely to lead to sea level rises of 0.4 to 1.4 metres. "Now, add to that the melting of ice bodies (and) you're talking about well over a metre of sea level rise. That, to my mind, will be disastrous for hundreds of millions of people," he said.

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