Here is a new report on the possible loss of value (due to climate change) for the Great Barrier Reef.
The analysis has been conducted using a Total Economic Value (TEV) approach, consistent with the concepts set out in the Queensland Government’s Environmental Economic Valuation: An introductory guide for policy-makes and practitioners (2003). The approach also draws on concepts developed in the recent Garnaut Report and environmental economics literature, including use of a 100 year timeframe and a social discount rate of 2.65%.
As a first step, the total value of the GBR and of the GBR in the Cairns area were derived. From this, estimates of the total cost of bleaching of the GBR and of the GBR in the Cairns area were then calculated.
Where there are uncertainties over data, a conservative approach has generally been adopted.
At a preferred discount rate of 2.65%, streamed over 100 years, holding present day values onstant, it is estimated that the present value (PV) of the GBR as a whole 9excluding indigenous values) is $51.4 billion, with a value of $17.9 billion estimated for the Cairns area.
From this, an estimate of the cost of bleaching for the Cairns area and the GBR can be derived. If a total and permanent bleaching of the GBR were to occur today, then (holding present day values constant over 100 years, at a discount rate of 2.65% the costs (in PV terms) are estimated at $37.7 billion with an estimate of $16.3 billion for the Cairns area.
Put another way, the bleaching cost for the whole of the GBR is roughly equivalent to a constant $1.08 billion per annum over the course of a century.
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