A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality

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There has been much debate over the Limits to Growth predictions made back in 1972. Well, here is a great new paper from Graham Turner (from the CSIRO) comparing the forecasts from the Limits to Growth book with what has actually happened in the past 30 years.

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He finds "the analysis shows that 30 years of historical data compare favorably with key features of a business-as-usual scenario called the “standard run” scenario, which results in collapse of the global system midway through the 21st century". Hmmm, that doesn't sound too good. Anyway, here is the abstract.

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Abstract:

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In 1972, the Club of Rome's infamous report “The Limits to Growth” presented some challenging scenarios for global sustainability, based on a system dynamics computer model to simulate the interactions of five global economic subsystems, namely: population, food production, industrial production, pollution, and consumption of non-renewable natural resources.

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Contrary to popular belief, The Limits to Growth scenarios by the team of analysts from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology did not predict world collapse by the end of the 20th century. This paper focuses on a comparison of recently collated historical data for 1970–2000 with scenarios presented in the Limits to Growth.

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The analysis shows that 30 years of historical data compare favorably with key features of a business-as-usual scenario called the “standard run” scenario, which results in collapse of the global system midway through the 21st century. The data do not compare well with other scenarios involving comprehensive use of technology or stabilizing behaviour and policies. The results indicate the particular importance of understanding and controlling global pollution.

More here (including mp3 audio interview with Graham Turner)

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Reference:
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Graham M. Turner. A Comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality. Global Environmental Change 18 (2008) 397-411. Accepted 13 May 2008, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems.

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