Friday, August 28, 2009

Estimated cost of adapting to climate change

The UNFCCC had estimated annual global costs of adapting to climate change to be US$40-170 billion, but a new report released has suggested that this is a gross underestimate of the cost to adapt to climate change. The report was published by the International Institute for Environment and Development and the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at the Imperial College London.

Professor Martin Perry (who co-chaired the IPCC working group on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation between 2002 and 2008) said:

"Just looking in depth at the sectors the UNFCCC did study, we estimate adaptation costs to be 2-3 higher, and when you include the sectors the UNFCCC left out the true cost is probably much greater,”


Professor Sir Brian Hoskins, (Director of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change) said:

"The costs of adapting to live with a changing climate are very uncertain. However, this new report suggests that previous attempts to figure out the costs have drastically under-estimated how expensive this could be. With such large sums potentially involved, the pressure to act now to reduce the extent of climate change is greater than ever.”



Download the full report here


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Adaption of People and Forests to Climate Change


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New Green Jobs ??.


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So please, tell us what you think.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

AFL goes green

In its efforts to help fight climate change the AFL (Australian Football League) has made Round 20 a GREEN round.

Now you may be wondering if this is helpful or just green wash? (After all, a green ball on green grass does seem a bit silly. Also on view were green umpires and green goal umpire flags and even a recycling symbol in the centre of the ground.)

Still, it did seem to be a positive start, in that, it did help to raise the issue of climate change and there were also some resources available if people wanted to find out more (and hopefully act). In did seem a bit 'light green' in its approach and suggestions, but it is a good starting point given AFL has such a wide following in Australia. It is a 'step by step' approach rather than a 'radical change' approach.

I will just have to wait and see what 'grows' out of the project. Hopefully a lot more to come as the AFL heads towards becoming 'carbon neutral'. Anyway, I like the photo below.

Photo: Judd and Rudd (and in the background Andrew Demetriou, Penny Wong and Kate Ellis) in Canberra on Tuesday to launch AFL Green Round.

More on the AFL green round here.


If you have never seen AFL check out:

video (3 minutes) or this video (1 minute).

** If you enjoyed this post please also check out:


Australia's Biodiversity and Climate Change


Great Barrier Reef - loss of value due to climate change


Can Sydney adapt to climate change?


New Green Jobs ??.


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So please, tell us what you think.

Australia's Biodiversity and Climate Change

Here is a great new report on the increasing risks to Australia's biodiversity due to climate change.


Some info on the report follows (from the NSW Government Climate Change website):

An assessment of the vulnerability of Australia’s biodiversity to climate change was commissioned by the Australian Government to help increase our understanding of how to help Australia’s rich biodiversity adapt to climate change.


The assessment finds that Australia’s biodiversity is at risk from even moderate climate change and already under stress, for example from habitat degradation, changed fire regimes and invasive species.


Climate change is likely to exacerbate these existing stressors and add additional stresses such as through declining water availability.


Rates of extinction of species are likely to increase as the global average temperature rises by just 1.0 or 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and likely to accelerate sharply as temperature rises beyond 2°C.

The Assessment was undertaken by an independent group of experts, led by Professor Will Steffen, for the Natural Resource Management Ministerial Council.



To view the full report click here.


Also worth a quick look:


Kakadu – a climate change hotspot (fact sheet)

The Great Barrier Reef and Climate Change (fact sheet)


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Don't forget me . . .

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Blue tongue lizard

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Sunday, August 09, 2009

Great Barrier Reef - loss of value due to climate change

Here is a new report on the possible loss of value (due to climate change) for the Great Barrier Reef.



The analysis has been conducted using a Total Economic Value (TEV) approach, consistent with the concepts set out in the Queensland Government’s Environmental Economic Valuation: An introductory guide for policy-makes and practitioners (2003). The approach also draws on concepts developed in the recent Garnaut Report and environmental economics literature, including use of a 100 year timeframe and a social discount rate of 2.65%.

As a first step, the total value of the GBR and of the GBR in the Cairns area were derived. From this, estimates of the total cost of bleaching of the GBR and of the GBR in the Cairns area were then calculated.

Where there are uncertainties over data, a conservative approach has generally been adopted.

At a preferred discount rate of 2.65%, streamed over 100 years, holding present day values onstant, it is estimated that the present value (PV) of the GBR as a whole 9excluding indigenous values) is $51.4 billion, with a value of $17.9 billion estimated for the Cairns area.

From this, an estimate of the cost of bleaching for the Cairns area and the GBR can be derived. If a total and permanent bleaching of the GBR were to occur today, then (holding present day values constant over 100 years, at a discount rate of 2.65% the costs (in PV terms) are estimated at $37.7 billion with an estimate of $16.3 billion for the Cairns area.

Put another way, the bleaching cost for the whole of the GBR is roughly equivalent to a constant $1.08 billion per annum over the course of a century.

** If you enjoyed this post please also check out:
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Thursday, August 06, 2009

Psychology and Climate Change - a new report by the American Psychology Association


The APA (American Psychology Association) has just released a 'pre-print' copy of a new report on psychology and global climate change. It is well worth a read if you are interested in what psychology has to offer in the fight against climate change (i.e. overcoming barriers, etc). I have been waiting for several months for a chance to see this report. [Update: I have just read the section on population (as suggested)].
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I should highlight that this is not the final report (think of it as a 'pre-print' or 'almost final copy') as graphics still need to be added. The final report should be ready for release in about a month.
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The report includes:
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Section 1: How do people understand the risks imposed by climate change?
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Section 2: What are the human behavioural contributions to climate change and the psychological and contextual drivers of these contributions?
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Section 3: What are the psychological impacts of climate change?
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Section 4: How do people adapt to and cope with the perceived threat and unfolding impacts of climate change?
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Section 5: Which psychological barriers limit climate action?
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Section 6: How can psychologists assist in limiting climate change?
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The 'pre-print' report is available at:

http://www.apa.org/releases/climate-change.pdf


Here is the blurb on the report:

PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS HELP EXPLAIN SLOW REACTION TO GLOBAL WARMING, SAYS APA TASK FORCE

Report Urges Psychologists to Play Larger Role in Limiting Climate Change Effects
While most Americans think climate change is an important issue, they don’t see it as an immediate threat, so getting people to “go green” requires policymakers, scientists and marketers to look at psychological barriers to change and what leads people to action, according to a task force of the American Psychological Association.

Scientific evidence shows the main influences of climate change are behavioral – population growth and energy consumption. “What is unique about current global climate change is the role of human behavior,” said task force chair Janet Swim, PhD, of Pennsylvania State University. “We must look at the reasons people are not acting in order to understand how to get people to act.”

APA’s Task Force on the Interface Between Psychology and Global Climate Change examined decades of psychological research and practice that have been specifically applied and tested in the arena of climate change, such as environmental and conservation psychology and research on natural and technological disasters. The task force presented its findings at APA’s 117th Annual Convention in Toronto in a report that was accepted by the association’s governing Council of Representatives.

The task force’s report offers a detailed look at the connection between psychology and global climate change and makes policy commendations for psychological science. It cites a national Pew Research Center poll in which 75 percent to 80 percent of respondents said that climate change is an important issue. But respondents ranked it last in a list of 20 compelling issues, such as the economy or terrorism. Despite warnings from scientists and environmental experts that limiting the effects of climate change means humans need to make some severe changes now, people don’t feel a sense of urgency. The task force said numerous psychological barriers are to blame, including:

Uncertainty – Research has shown that uncertainty over climate change reduces the frequency of “green” behavior. Mistrust – Evidence shows that most people don’t believe the risk messages of scientists or government officials.
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Denial – A substantial minority of people believe climate change is not occurring or that human activity has little or nothing to do with it, according to various polls.

Undervaluing Risks – A study of more than 3,000 people in 18 countries showed that many people believe environmental conditions will worsen in 25 years. While this may be true, this thinking could lead people to believe that changes can be made later.

Lack of Control – People believe their actions would be too small to make a difference and choose to do nothing. Habit – Ingrained behaviors are extremely resistant to permanent change while others change slowly. Habit is the most important obstacle to pro-environment behavior, according to the report.

The task force highlighted some ways that psychology is already working to limit these barriers. For example, people are more likely to use energy-efficient appliances if they are provided with immediate energy-use feedback. Devices that show people how much energy and money they’re conserving can yield energy savings of 5 percent to 12 percent, according to research.

“Behavioral feedback links the cost of energy use more closely to behavior by showing the costs immediately or daily rather than in an electric bill that comes a month later,” said Swim.

Also, some studies have looked at whether financial incentives can spur people to weatherize their houses. The research has shown that combined strong financial incentives, attention to customer convenience and quality assurance and strong social marketing led to weatherization of 20 percent or more of eligible homes in a community in the first year of a program. The results were far more powerful than achieved by another program that offered just financial incentives.
The task force identified other areas where psychology can help limit the effects of climate change, such as developing environmental regulations, economic incentives, better energy-efficient technology and communication methods.

“Many of the shortcomings of policies based on only a single intervention type, such as technology, economic incentives or regulation, may be overcome if policy implementers make better use of psychological knowledge,” the task force wrote in the report.

The task force also urged psychologists to continue to expand that knowledge. Environmental psychology emerged as a sub-discipline in the early 20th century but didn’t really gain momentum until the 1980s, according to the report. But the task force said studying and influencing climate change should not be left to a sub-discipline; many different types of psychologists can provide an understanding of how people of different ages respond to climate change. “The expertise found in a variety of fields of psychology can help find solutions to many climate change problems right now,” Swim said. “For example, experts in community and business psychology can address the behavioral changes necessary as businesses and nonprofits adapt to a changing environment.”

Members of the APA Task Force on the Interface Between Psychology and Global Climate Change:

Chair: Janet K. Swim, PhD, Pennsylvania State University

Susan Clayton, PhD, College of Wooster Thomas Doherty, PsyD, Lewis and Clark College

Robert Gifford, PhD, University of Victoria George Howard, PhD, University of Notre Dame

Joseph Reser, PhD, Griffith University Paul Stern, PhD, National Academies of Science Elke Weber, PhD, Columbia University


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So please, tell us what you think.